Analytics
Yes is at 97.4%, up 54 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
Across the 242 daily closes on record from 29 Jan 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (32 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.4% on 29 Oct 2026 and the lowest 43.5% on 29 Jan 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 96%; a month before, 94.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 79.5% on 30 Jan 2026.
Madeleine Dean (D) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “PA-04 House Election Winner”, ahead of Aurora Stuski (R) at 2.5%.
$6.76K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $48.87K, with a 2.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 72 trades, $2.62K bought Yes and $64.53 bought No; the largest was a $1.02K buy of Yes at 93.7¢.
The largest Yes position is SitsToPee with 477 shares; the largest No position is b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. with 160.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 242 points, 29 Jan 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 43.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 97.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SitsToPee | Yes | 476.67 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 160 |
| BSS37 | No | 100 |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pa-04-house-election-winner
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 100 |
| Biver52 | No | 100 |
| Rain-Prob-01 | No | 25 |
| Vollhorst | Yes | 21.4 |
| Numitus1994 | No | 21 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 18 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 17 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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