Analytics
Yes is at 37%, down 12 points from 49% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
Across the 243 daily closes on record from 29 Jan 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (31 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 29 Jan 2026 and the lowest 8% on 7 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23.5%; a month before, 28.5%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 15% on 30 Jan 2026.
Fred Wellman (D) ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “MO-02 House Election Winner”. Ann Wagner (R) leads at 62.5%.
$10.02K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $77.89K since listing. The order book holds $90.6K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $9.22K bought Yes and $11.09K bought No; the largest was a $4.28K buy of No at 63.0¢.
The largest Yes position is BigRabbit with 10K shares; the largest No position is anoin123 with 13.8K. Ten wallets hold 83.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 243 points, 29 Jan 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 49.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 37.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | No | 13.78K |
| BigRabbit | Yes | 10K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.49K |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mo-02-house-election-winner
| tunatyler |
| Yes |
| 5K |
| mrworldwide | Yes | 2.79K |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 1.92K |
| lava-lava | Yes | 1.44K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 1.06K |
| flexibleagedbeef | No | 999 |
| Spiffy-Win | Yes | 983.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
