Analytics
Yes is at 92%, up 39 points from 53.5% when the market opened on 26 Nov 2025.
Across the 317 daily closes on record from 26 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 93.5% on 8 Oct 2026 and the lowest 28.5% on 13 Dec 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 89.5%; a month before, 89.5%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 48% on 16 Jun 2026.
Randy Villegas (D) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “CA-22 House Election Winner”, ahead of David Valadao (R) at 8%.
$2.02K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $12.35K since listing. The order book holds $70.05K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 222 trades, $4.53K bought Yes and $293.06 bought No; the largest was a $1.71K buy of Yes at 84.4¢.
The largest Yes position is Seutervoinen with 2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.9K. Ten wallets hold 95% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 317 points, 26 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | 53.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 92.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.94K |
| Seutervoinen | Yes | 2.02K |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 1.47K |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-race-for-the-ca-22-seat
| Prickly-Eyrie |
| No |
| 871.11 |
| mrworldwide | Yes | 663.96 |
| Gamble.and.bankurpt | Yes | 584.13 |
| whispercatalyst | No | 514.64 |
| GUINESS123 | No | 170 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 169.42 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 85.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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