Analytics
Yes is at 95.9%, up 44 points from 52% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
The high was 96.7% on 20 Sep 2026 and the low 52% on 29 Jan 2026. A week ago Yes was at 96%; a month ago, 95.8%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 79% on 30 Jan 2026.
Democratic Party is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “CA-04 House Election Winner”, ahead of Republican Party at 3.3%.
$5.91K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $18.34K, with a 3.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 70 trades, $2.12K bought Yes and $82.66 bought No.
The largest Yes position is i2dt with 671 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 527.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 26 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 9, 8:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 230 points · 29 Jan 2026 – 9 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 52.0% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 95.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| i2dt | Yes | 670.74 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 527.39 |
| thecaricature | No | 250 |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-04-house-election-winner
| Tame-Rank |
| Yes |
| 123.67 |
| Coral Vector 08BD | Yes | 100 |
| Numitus1994 | No | 51 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 50 |
| BSS37 | No | 30 |
| Rain-Prob-01 | No | 25 |
| khanoftruth | Yes | 20 |
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