Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 6 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 6 May 2025 to 1 Jun 2025, the highest close was 9% on 9 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 2.5% on 11 May 2025. $84.36K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 1, 7:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 6 May 2025 – 1 Jun 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 May 2025 | 4.5% |
| 1 Jun 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Torpboy | Yes | 200 |
| rdunjgiofnuei | Yes | 105.09 |
| godlikeluck | Yes | 83.33 |
| Aged-Conductor | Yes | 53.75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Baglihar Dam is the subject of a kinetic strike between May 4 and May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Missile/drone strikes which are shot down or don't hit the bridge will not be considered for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-baglihar-dam-be-hit-in-may
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| learnwithmoe | Yes | 37.5 |
| BabyYoda12 | Yes | 2.42 |
| ODINNA | No | 0.03 |
| RileyWilson | No | 0.02 |
| bigboops | No | 0.02 |
| TYriplecheese | No | 0.01 |
