Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 194.03 | $0.211 | $40.94 | May 26, 2025 |
 |
| sell |
| 117.64 |
| $0.025 |
| $2.94 |
| May 26, 2025 |
 Will Trump suspend habeas corpus before July?Yes | sell | 26.31 | $0.100 | $2.63 | May 26, 2025 |
 Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July?Yes | sell | 142.85 | $0.034 | $4.86 | May 26, 2025 |
 China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?Yes | sell | 133.33 | $0.090 | $12 | May 26, 2025 |
 Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025?Yes | sell | 1.21K | $0.015 | $18.51 | May 26, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 152.29 | $0.218 | $33.26 | May 26, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 81.53 | $0.050 | $4.08 | May 26, 2025 |
 Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Yes | sell | 142.85 | $0.100 | $14.29 | May 26, 2025 |
 US recession in 2025?Yes | sell | 39.21 | $0.380 | $14.9 | May 26, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 45.83 | $0.209 | $9.56 | May 26, 2025 |
 Will next reconciliation bill end taxes on tips in 2025?Yes | sell | 11.36 | $0.842 | $9.57 | May 26, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 101 | $0.203 | $20.46 | May 26, 2025 |
 Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline?No | sell | 63.15 | $0.310 | $19.58 | May 26, 2025 |
 Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats?No | sell | 175.5 | $0.005 | $0.88 | May 25, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 95.83 | $0.180 | $17.25 | May 25, 2025 |
 US kicks trans members out of military before July?Yes | sell | 34.94 | $0.494 | $17.25 | May 25, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 84.72 | $0.180 | $15.23 | May 25, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?Yes | sell | 31.09 | $0.490 | $15.23 | May 25, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 178.07 | $0.180 | $32 | May 25, 2025 |
 Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?Yes | sell | 400 | $0.080 | $32 | May 25, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 186.22 | $0.180 | $33.48 | May 25, 2025 |
 Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No | sell | 16.12 | $0.690 | $11.12 | May 25, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?No | sell | 58.82 | $0.380 | $22.35 | May 25, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 190.6 | $0.366 | $69.67 | May 22, 2025 |
 Will Pope Leo visit Ukraine first?Yes | sell | 669.73 | $0.104 | $69.67 | May 22, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 57.45 | $0.110 | $6.32 | May 18, 2025 |
| Will Pope Leo visit Ukraine first?Yes | buy | 286.63 | $0.035 | $10 | May 18, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No | buy | 16.13 | $0.620 | $10 | May 18, 2025 |
| US kicks trans members out of military before July?Yes | buy | 19.23 | $0.520 | $10 | May 18, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?Yes | buy | 31.09 | $0.643 | $20 | May 17, 2025 |
| Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025?Yes | buy | 344.83 | $0.029 | $10 | May 17, 2025 |
| Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?Yes | buy | 400 | $0.100 | $40 | May 17, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?No | buy | 58.82 | $0.340 | $20 | May 17, 2025 |
 Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16?Yes | sell | 8.16 | $0.002 | $0.02 | May 17, 2025 |
| Will Pope Leo visit Ukraine first?Yes | buy | 304.85 | $0.066 | $20 | May 16, 2025 |
 Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 9–16?Yes | buy | 137.16 | $0.036 | $5 | May 16, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Stupid" during May 16 Baier interview?Yes | buy | 1.88 | $0.880 | $1.65 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Judge" during May 16 Baier interview?Yes | buy | 2.44 | $0.820 | $2 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Trump" during May 16 Baier interview?Yes | buy | 4.41 | $0.680 | $3 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during May 16 Baier interview?No | buy | 21.6 | $0.463 | $10 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Deal" 10+ times during May 16 Baier interview?Yes | buy | 20.57 | $0.486 | $10 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during May 16 Baier interview?Yes | buy | 21.05 | $0.475 | $10 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during May 16 Baier interview?Yes | buy | 14.93 | $0.670 | $10 | May 16, 2025 |
 Elon out of Trump administration before July?Yes | sell | 58.82 | $0.360 | $21.18 | May 15, 2025 |
| Will next reconciliation bill lift debt ceiling in 2025?Yes | sell | 32.25 | $0.790 | $25.48 | May 15, 2025 |
| Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?Yes | buy | 126.36 | $0.215 | $27.19 | May 15, 2025 |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16?Yes | buy | 8.17 | $0.420 | $3.43 | May 15, 2025 |
 Will Powell say "Slowdown" during Framework Review speech on May 15?Yes | buy | 24.39 | $0.410 | $10 | May 15, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Recession" during Framework Review speech on May 15?Yes | buy | 27.18 | $0.368 | $10 | May 15, 2025 |