Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 39 points from 50% when the market opened on 4 Sep 2026.
The high was 74.5% on 8 Sep 2026 and the low 11.5% on 5 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 14.5%; a month ago, 50%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 35% on 11 Sep 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”.
$20 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.63K since listing. The order book holds $5.91K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 201 trades, $549.05 bought Yes and $2.3K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Dr.PNL with 430 shares; the largest No position is Quiet Horizon F251 with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 92.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 85 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 7, 2:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 35 points · 4 Sep 2026 – 7 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet Horizon F251 | No | 1.33K |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 429.81 |
| SuperTests | Yes | 356 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027
| pootytherewardfarmer |
| Yes |
| 149.4 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 125.09 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 100.01 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 100 |
| alamedamemola | Yes | 99.99 |
| pochopim | Yes | 55.11 |
| AJSV | No | 52.95 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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