Analytics
Yes is at 61%, up 35 points from 26% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
The high was 53% on 17 Oct 2026 and the low 15.5% on 10 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 16.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 53% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?”.
$331.22 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.39K since listing. The order book holds $126.47, with a 30.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 96 trades, $229.35 bought Yes and $826.48 bought No.
The largest Yes position is cigarettes with 164 shares; the largest No position is grinder1011 with 353. Ten wallets hold 85.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 9:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 26.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 30.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| grinder1011 | No | 353.12 |
| johnashbough | No | 181.38 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 163.59 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-30-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october
| AJSV |
| Yes |
| 156.08 |
| Started-with-20-USD | Yes | 131.22 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 82.15 |
| Gaditima | No | 71 |
| PCMTest | Yes | 60 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 59.98 |
| UpTheStairs | Yes | 40 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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