Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 19.5%. Yes opened at 26% on 2 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 21 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 26% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 8 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 12% on 6 Oct 2026. $2.61K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 23, 12:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 26.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 19.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 700 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| Better-Browsing | No | 50 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-30-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october
| johnashbough | No | 29 |
| crossFiter | No | 27.18 |
| baerwiththegewehr | No | 20 |
| Hazel1122 | No | 20 |
| triklozoid | No | 20 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| bjprolo | No | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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