Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 76.5%. Yes opened at 42% on 24 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 94% on 25 Sep 2026 and the low 42% on 24 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 52 points up, to 94% on 25 Sep 2026. $9.38K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 5 points · 24 Sep 2026 – 28 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 42.0% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 76.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Violet Vector B233 | No | 244.51 |
| Bold Raven 7DE7 | No | 155.5 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 148.4 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 140.59 |
| Fihdrzgdd | No | 100 |
| hp210210 | No | 71 |
| neutralwave23 | No | 65.39 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 60 |
| beyond0 | No | 50 |
| WarriorH | No | 50 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-september
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