Analytics
Resolved Yes on 15 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 89.3%. Yes opened at 58.5% on 13 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 173 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 15 May 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 96.5% on 14 May 2026 and the lowest 16% on 14 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 16% on 14 Nov 2025. $37.42K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 23, 12:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 173 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 15 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 58.5% |
| 15 May 2026 | 89.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| singaporesling | No | 1.78K |
| urgencista | No | 1.5K |
| Winey | No | 942.66 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027
| snowman8 | No | 364.33 |
| warptrading | No | 357.14 |
| Fabulous-Sweat | No | 357 |
| XAE12Archangel | No | 344.22 |
| OverlookHotel | Yes | 234.35 |
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| Dangerous-Spec | No | 62.76 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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