Analytics
Yes is at 1.4%, down 49 points from 50.5% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
The high was 50.5% on 13 Nov 2025 and the low 1.1% on 6 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 1.9%; a month ago, 1.7%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 9.5% on 16 Nov 2025.
It is one of 15 markets under “How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”.
$5.08K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $3.5K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 57 trades, $15.73 bought Yes and $3.46K bought No; the largest was a $2.58K buy of No at 98.1¢.
The largest Yes position is Digital-Boy with 553 shares; the largest No position is HDGB with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 91.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 83 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 9, 10:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 310 points · 13 Nov 2025 – 9 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 50.5% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 1.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HDGB | No | 1.22K |
| Digital-Boy | Yes | 553 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 537.71 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027
3 more markets, none above 1.4%.
| pppnn |
| Yes |
| 100 |
| hithitfar | No | 75.91 |
| AJSV | Yes | 75 |
| kjaskdaskdadsd | No | 63.77 |
| Unruly-Real | Yes | 59.14 |
| Tiny-Audit | Yes | 47.7 |
| myodds | No | 46.31 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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