Analytics
Yes is at 1.5%, down 42 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 315 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (35 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43.5% on 13 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 19 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.4%; a month before, 1.3%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 12% on 16 Nov 2025.
It is one of 17 markets under “How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”.
$40.83K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $591.79, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.11K bought Yes and $16.84K bought No.
The largest Yes position is trader3106 with 133 shares; the largest No position is rip with 175. Ten wallets hold 71.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 64 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 315 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 43.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rip | No | 174.57 |
| trader3106 | Yes | 133.22 |
| Jade Vector CF97 | Yes | 128.21 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027
4 more markets, none above 1.9%.
| TheBigMuscle |
| No |
| 124.01 |
| 0xB16B00B5 | No | 107.26 |
| chaosj89 | Yes | 101.21 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 100 |
| myodds | No | 88.31 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 54 |
| 28zebracavaliers | No | 53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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