Analytics
Yes is at 79.5%, down 1.5 points from 81% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026, the highest close was 81% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 78.5% on 24 Oct 2026.
It is one of 17 markets under “How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”.
$116.67 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $767.02, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 80 shares; the largest No position is mavsgseguritas with 63.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 3:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 74%–86%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 81.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 79.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AJSV | Yes | 80 |
| mavsgseguritas | No | 63.33 |
| quine-zyx | No | 16.67 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027
5 more markets, none above 1.7%.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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