Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 77% on 22 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 54 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2025 to 13 Sep 2025, the highest close was 100% on 11 Sep 2025 and the lowest 56.5% on 4 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 91% on 5 Sep 2025. $116.7K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 13, 3:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 54 points, 22 Jul 2025 – 13 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | 77.0% |
| 13 Sep 2025 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| WongKimArk | No | 8.77K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 1.51K |
| GayPride | No | 876.43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly launches a fully driverless taxi service by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Any service that allows a member of the general public to summon and ride in a Tesla vehicle operating without any human—onboard or remote—actively controlling the vehicle will count. A human may be present in the vehicle or monitoring remotely for emergency intervention, but they must not be physically positioned to take control (for example, no safety driver in the driver’s seat) and must not actively steer, brake, accelerate, or otherwise drive the car under normal operation. A program that is restricted to Tesla employees, invite-only testers, closed-beta participants, factory self-delivery features, or the mere release of Full Self-Driving software for private owner-drivers will not qualify. Regulatory permits or approvals, press demonstrations, and prototype unveilings without live public ridership likewise will not count toward resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robotaxi-service-by-june-30-2026
| No |
| 573.64 |
| Pitragor | No | 500 |
| Modest-Lily | No | 480.29 |
| User35786357644 | No | 402.42 |
| lissartter | No | 335.04 |
| -Guapo-- | No | 209.08 |
| potholderz | No | 150 |
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