Analytics
Yes is at 33.5%, down 8 points from 41.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 178 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 68% on 4 Oct 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 10 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 30.5%; a month before, 48%. Its largest one-day move was 50 points up, to 68% on 4 Oct 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?”.
$343.63 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $840.7, with a 43.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 24 trades, $34.59 bought Yes and $113.11 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 36 shares; the largest No position is Retarts with 70.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 178 points, 1 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 41.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 33.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Retarts | No | 70 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 36.49 |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 32 |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand
| Skinny-Regulator |
| Yes |
| 30 |
| Basic-Outset | No | 25 |
| conherence | Yes | 20 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 15.17 |
| Haradwaith | No | 10.1 |
| niglette | Yes | 9.77 |
| dropmeplease | No | 9.77 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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