Analytics
Yes is at 45.5%, down 4.5 points from 50% when the market opened on 30 Apr 2026.
Across the 181 daily closes on record from 30 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 76% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 36.5% on 12 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 57%; a month before, 75%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 36.5% on 12 May 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?”.
$434.46 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $694.24, with a 35.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 22 trades, $114.81 bought Yes and $85.02 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 105 shares; the largest No position is vyemfql with 128.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 181 points, 30 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 45.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| vyemfql | No | 128.04 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 105.05 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 41.34 |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand
| Basic-Outset |
| No |
| 24.77 |
| Skinny-Regulator | Yes | 18.66 |
| Granular-Epoxy | Yes | 17.44 |
| tristanb | No | 11.9 |
| 86fgh | No | 9.11 |
| mdgc | No | 5 |
| stra-l11 | No | 3.6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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