Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 46 points from 49% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2025.
Across the 367 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 10 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 2 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4%; a month before, 4.7%. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 4% on 11 Oct 2025.
Steve Hilton ranks second of the 23 outcomes in “California Governor Election Winner”. Xavier Becerra leads at 97.2%; Rick Caruso is at 0.1%.
$126.73K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.68M since listing. The order book holds $247.98K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $7.99K bought Yes and $39.77K bought No; the largest was a $29.1K sell of No at 97.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Ferwhere with 619.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 452.3K. Ten wallets hold 75.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 2:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 367 points, 10 Oct 2025 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | 49.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ferwhere | Yes | 619.86K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 452.26K |
| Lunar Orbit DAD2 | Yes | 361.5K |
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election-2026
11 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| wan123 | No | 127.84K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 88.12K |
| chriszyy3 | No | 60.11K |
| Cosmic Oracle AEEA | Yes | 50.32K |
| AngryRhino | No | 49.42K |
| elmcap2 | No | 37.5K |
| dromedaryy | No | 32.31K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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