Analytics
Yes is at 42.5%, down 7.5 points from 50% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 329 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 71% on 12 Aug 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 14 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 47%; a month before, 55.5%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 13.5% on 14 Nov 2025.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day ranks second of the 4 outcomes in “Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?”. Avengers: Doomsday leads at 56.5%; The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping is at 0.1%.
$6.62K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $359.42K since listing. The order book holds $17.35K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $15.83K bought Yes and $9.31K bought No; the largest was a $3.18K sell of Yes at 46.2¢.
The largest Yes position is schizohedgehog with 31K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 94.8K. Ten wallets hold 85% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 94 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 329 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 42.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 94.82K |
| schizohedgehog | Yes | 30.97K |
| Investnow | Yes | 25.95K |
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026
| eCash | Yes | 7.97K |
| Parallel-Trader | Yes | 6.18K |
| ImBruceWayne | Yes | 4.02K |
| boring999 | Yes | 3.65K |
| Silver Raven B802 | Yes | 2.14K |
| Shameless-Temporary | Yes | 1.79K |
| UZZ242 | No | 1.75K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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