Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95.5%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 20 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 54 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2026 to 12 Oct 2026, the highest close was 95.5% on 12 Oct 2026 and the lowest 19.5% on 27 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 48.5% on 28 Sep 2026. $5.22K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 13, 2:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 54 points, 20 Aug 2026 – 12 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | 44.5% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | 95.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.1K |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 47.14 |
| PPMT | No | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER) as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST. The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER) if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above. If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ser-seat-count-after-french-senate-election
| No |
| 20 |
| Silver Comet 28D6 | Yes | 13.79 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | No | 12.19 |
| Lunar Pulse E799 | No | 11.16 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| triklozoid | No | 10 |
| Mojito9 | No | 9.4 |
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