Analytics
Yes is at 2.3%, down 3.2 points from 5.5% when the market opened on 18 Apr 2026.
The high was 10% on 30 May 2026 and the low 1.8% on 16 Jun 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.3%; a month ago, 2.4%.
$937.82K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $20.21K, with a 0.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $99.69 bought Yes and $4.8K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Bumblefrog with 3.6K shares; the largest No position is Lopsided-Daybed with 1K. Ten wallets hold 59.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 86 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 7, 11:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 171 points · 18 Apr 2026 – 8 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | 5.5% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 2.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bumblefrog | Yes | 3.57K |
| gjj7tbmkk763ggg | Yes | 1.4K |
| Lopsided-Daybed | No | 1.04K |
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/satoshis-identity-be-proven-by
| Rundown-Schoolhouse |
| No |
| 967.46 |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 468.98 |
| Rapid Kestrel 977F | Yes | 459.14 |
| WeJustBettin | No | 407.82 |
| jackyxl | No | 307.57 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 299.95 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 265.68 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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