Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 45 points from 50% when the market opened on 24 Dec 2025.
The high was 50% on 24 Dec 2025 and the low 5% on 7 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 6%; a month ago, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 11.5% on 25 Dec 2025.
$448.94K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $17.91K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.47K bought Yes and $35.57K bought No; the largest was a $3.55K buy of No at 91.0¢.
The largest Yes position is slatfatf with 23.2K shares; the largest No position is OraculumNobius with 39.9K. Ten wallets hold 86.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 10, 4:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 268 points · 24 Dec 2025 – 8 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| OraculumNobius | No | 39.92K |
| slatfatf | Yes | 23.2K |
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 17.62K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg Sumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october
| hopedieslast |
| Yes |
| 14.19K |
| leqso0410 | No | 8.79K |
| Kaleidoscopic-Journalism | No | 6.94K |
| vovatoxic | No | 2.43K |
| compute | Yes | 2.19K |
| MuchAdo2BRN2B | Yes | 2.14K |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 2K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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