Analytics
Paper trading
Yes is at 14.5%, down 36 points from 50% when the market opened on 22 May 2026.
The high was 54% on 24 May 2026 and the low 9.5% on 25 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 22.5%; a month ago, 39.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 33.5% on 25 May 2026.
December 31 ranks third of the 3 outcomes in “Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?”. June 30, 2027 leads at 55.5%; March 31, 2027 is at 38.5%.
$454.92 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $182.63K since listing. The order book holds $14.31K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $6.98K bought Yes and $19.59K bought No; the largest was a $4K buy of No at 67.5¢.
The largest Yes position is DumplingBMF with 21.1K shares; the largest No position is Gladius7 with 16.6K. Ten wallets hold 63.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 80 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 14, 2:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 146 points, 22 May 2026 – 14 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DumplingBMF | Yes | 21.05K |
| Gladius7 | No | 16.59K |
| KrackenSruster | No | 11.13K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train Station Location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-orikhiv-by
| CryptoGo |
| Yes |
| 8.83K |
| 123erty | Yes | 7.22K |
| JoeBlack01 | No | 6.54K |
| GaioMario | No | 6.4K |
| siick | Yes | 5.26K |
| CompulsiveGambler | No | 4.82K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 3.93K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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