Analytics
Yes is at 25%, down 17 points from 42% when the market opened on 13 Oct 2026.
Across the 11 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 42% on 13 Oct 2026 and the lowest 18% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 18% on 21 Oct 2026.
March 31, 2027 ranks second of the 3 outcomes in “Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?”. June 30, 2027 leads at 56%; December 31 is at 9.5%.
$15 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $91.47K since listing. The order book holds $3.27K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 191 trades, $5.38K bought Yes and $23.45K bought No; the largest was a $8.48K buy of No at 67.0¢.
The largest Yes position is 123erty with 3.3K shares; the largest No position is Gladius7 with 6.8K. Ten wallets hold 80.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 42.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 25.0% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train Station Location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed |
| Yes |
| 748.41 |
| GaioMario | No | 689.6 |
| radek44 | Yes | 517.88 |
| bohdancio | No | 462.69 |
| perviy | Yes | 367 |
| slavikbalenciaga | Yes | 305.1 |
| JesusFK | Yes | 277.77 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-orikhiv-by
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