Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, down 74 points from 78.5% when the market opened on 20 Feb 2026.
Across the 226 daily closes on record from 20 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 87.5% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 15 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 12.5% on 8 Sep 2026.
$346.4 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $588.54K since listing. The order book holds $9.52K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $860.09 bought Yes and $7.6K bought No; the largest was a $5.05K sell of No at 93.6¢.
The largest Yes position is DumplingBMF with 24.8K shares; the largest No position is DenisDumov with 34K. Ten wallets hold 65.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 226 points, 20 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2026 | 78.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DenisDumov | No | 33.97K |
| DumplingBMF | Yes | 24.85K |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 15.36K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Useless-Weight |
| No |
| 12.12K |
| Bromley86 | Yes | 6.73K |
| abdoohl | Yes | 5.96K |
| Gladius7 | No | 4.79K |
| Nadmi | Yes | 3.87K |
| sneedly9 | Yes | 3.28K |
| itsfomo | No | 3.22K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025
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