Analytics
Yes is at 11.9%, down 12 points from 24% when the market opened on 3 Jul 2026.
Across the 112 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24% on 3 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 9 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.6%; a month before, 14.8%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 1.9% on 4 Jul 2026.
4 ranks fourth of the 7 outcomes in “How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?”. 2 leads at 40%; 3 is at 22%.
$3.82K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $714.7, with a 6.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 271 trades, $170 bought Yes and $1.13K bought No.
The largest Yes position is macrosteaks with 518 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 94.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 3 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2026 | 24.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 11.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.51K |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 518.08 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 449.93 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-senate-and-governor-elections-will-republicans-win-in-states-won-by-kamala-20260702152603469
| resilience26 | No | 341 |
| Violet Meteor 1B7C | Yes | 320 |
| xiaoaojiang | Yes | 260 |
| haouibao | Yes | 135 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 101.86 |
| Secondary-Shock | No | 100 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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