Analytics
Yes is at 7%, down 37 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 3 Sep 2026.
Across the 54 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 7% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18%; a month before, 16.5%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 10.5% on 6 Sep 2026.
12–13% ranks fourth of the 7 outcomes in “GOP Black vote share?”. 10–11% leads at 40%; 8–9% is at 35.5%.
$1.18K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.93K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 28 trades, $40.99 bought Yes and $275.94 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 99 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 163.
Trading closes on 7 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 54 points, 3 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | 43.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 162.67 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 99.25 |
| bernardbulletin | No | 60.2 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gop-black-vote-share
| Haradwaith | Yes | 41.01 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 40 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 39 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 21 |
| pppnn | No | 19.9 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 10.1 |
| CompulsiveGambler | No | 8.68 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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