Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 33 points from 39.5% when the market opened on 3 Sep 2026.
The high was 49.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the low 5.5% on 19 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 6.5%; a month ago, 6%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 6.5% on 6 Sep 2026.
16–17% ranks fifth of the 7 outcomes in “GOP Black vote share?”. 10–11% leads at 35.5%; 8–9% is at 20%.
$59 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $580.32, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 141 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 141.
Trading closes on 7 Nov 2026, 18 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 1:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 47 points, 3 Sep 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | 39.5% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 6.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AJSV | Yes | 141 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 141 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 39 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gop-black-vote-share
| CompulsiveGambler |
| No |
| 39 |
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