Analytics
Trading ended on 20 Oct 2026 with Yes at 98.4%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 12 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.4% on 22 Oct 2026 and the lowest 45.5% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 55%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 97.3% on 21 Oct 2026.
Remain 40–60% is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory”, ahead of Remain 20–40% at 1.1%.
$56.29K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is rookie765 with 8.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 24.9K. Ten wallets hold 83.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 22, 2:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 56.0% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 98.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 24.93K |
| rookie765 | Yes | 8.4K |
| Addarash | Yes | 5.49K |
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/alberta-independence-referendum-margin-of-victory
| wubddh |
| Yes |
| 5.21K |
| Jenny42069 | No | 3.13K |
| mrworldwide | Yes | 3.09K |
| pagliacci4 | Yes | 2.58K |
| BabyGroot | No | 2.14K |
| SaylorMoon | No | 2.02K |
| Rex416 | Yes | 1.75K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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