Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 0.1%; no result has been reported.
The high was 13.5% on 10 Oct 2026 and the low 0.1% on 21 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.2%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 0.2% on 11 Oct 2026.
Remain 80%+ ranks fourth of the 6 outcomes in “Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory”. Remain 40–60% leads at 98.4%; Remain 60–80% is at 0.8%.
$19.69K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Devoted-Route with 7.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 23.5K. Ten wallets hold 84.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 21, 1:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 13.5% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 23.54K |
| Devoted-Route | Yes | 7.12K |
| balthazar | Yes | 1.68K |
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/alberta-independence-referendum-margin-of-victory
| Knowing-Arthur-Ash |
| Yes |
| 1.65K |
| iufdhs | Yes | 1.46K |
| donthackme | Yes | 1.27K |
| inpassing | Yes | 1.23K |
| scottyam | Yes | 1.11K |
| suntori | Yes | 961.5 |
| heuer | Yes | 726.3 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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