Analytics
Yes is at 23%, up 10 points from 13% when the market opened on 22 Sep 2026.
Across the 31 daily closes on record from 22 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 36% on 11 Oct 2026 and the lowest 13% on 22 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 20%; a month before, 15%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 18.5% on 12 Oct 2026.
It is one of 15 markets under “Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?”.
$4.43K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $30.86K since listing. The order book holds $19.54K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 276 trades, $1.86K bought Yes and $9.67K bought No; the largest was a $1.75K buy of No at 80.4¢.
The largest Yes position is LJa7io23MCv954j with 1.9K shares; the largest No position is Violet Ledger EB39 with 2.3K. Ten wallets hold 81.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 30 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 22 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2026 | 13.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 24.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Violet Ledger EB39 | No | 2.3K |
| LJa7io23MCv954j | Yes | 1.88K |
| wan123 | Yes | 921.75 |
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-israeli-government
3 more markets, none above 4.5%.
| BikesAreTheBikes |
| Yes |
| 667.56 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 600 |
| oran1 | No | 247.18 |
| Roytz | No | 238.1 |
| Haradwaith | No | 230.29 |
| Antony82 | No | 200.06 |
| Pale-Foodstuffs | Yes | 180 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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