Analytics
Yes is at 7%, down 41 points from 48% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
Across the 44 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 13% on 11 Sep 2026.
$1.14K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.09K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 158 shares; the largest No position is wqujvj with 350.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 11:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 26 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 48.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 7.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wqujvj | No | 350 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 158 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 76.82 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/). A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-retracts-navier-stokes-solution-in-2026
| thecaricature |
| Yes |
| 70 |
| pppnn | Yes | 20 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 18.45 |
| Violet Vector B29E | Yes | 10.69 |
| VLamarca | No | 10 |
| archaic | Yes | 3.08 |
| wedontdothesame | Yes | 2.96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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