Analytics
Yes is at 98.5%, up 32 points from 66% when the market opened on 14 Aug 2026.
Across the 75 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 63% on 15 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 96.8%; a month before, 89.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 71.5% on 27 Aug 2026.
OpenAI is the favourite of the 13 outcomes in “Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?”, ahead of Google at 1.1%.
$214.5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $31.14K since listing. The order book holds $391.81, with a 2.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 465 trades, $6.58K bought Yes and $1.8K bought No.
The largest Yes position is PavtheGreat with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.6K. Ten wallets hold 80.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 14 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | 66.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 98.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.59K |
| PavtheGreat | Yes | 1.1K |
| Dr.PNL | No | 404.96 |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-text-to-image-ai-end-of-october
1 more outcome, none above 0.1%.
| tradetosurvive1 |
| Yes |
| 399.81 |
| Watchful-Fund | Yes | 383.98 |
| Bodytobody | Yes | 285.82 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 166.57 |
| lowkey.ledgend | Yes | 140 |
| tripsomewheresouth | No | 122.64 |
| RATHMA4 | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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