Analytics
Yes is at 2.5%, down 44 points from 46.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.9%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 17.5% on 4 Oct 2026.
3rd hottest ranks second of the 4 outcomes in “October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?”. 1st hottest leads at 95.1%; 2nd hottest is at 0.7%.
$8.1K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.39K, with a 3.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 137 trades, $180.74 bought Yes and $2.58K bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 471 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.7K. Ten wallets hold 93.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 37 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 46.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.71K |
| AJSV | Yes | 471.41 |
| linzy996 | Yes | 461.53 |
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/october-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record
| 2B9S |
| Yes |
| 201 |
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 140 |
| IP1380 | Yes | 127.47 |
| predictdogepepewif | Yes | 100 |
| zeitfi-vault-v2 | Yes | 76.36 |
| cigarettes | No | 69.1 |
| Neon Atlas F332 | Yes | 50.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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