Analytics
Yes is at 0.7%, down 47 points from 48% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 18 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 11.5% on 4 Oct 2026.
2nd hottest ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?”. 1st hottest leads at 96.5%; 3rd hottest is at 2.6%.
$3.03K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.53K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 54 trades, $6.56 bought Yes and $1.02K bought No.
The largest Yes position is RandomWalker3 with 993 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.7K. Ten wallets hold 96.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 37 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 10:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 48.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 0.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.71K |
| RandomWalker3 | Yes | 992.77 |
| AJSV | Yes | 155 |
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/october-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record
| 2200FCA4fE3bAb3706522A8F4436B7656911474f. |
| Yes |
| 111.06 |
| Crimson Summit 6D33 | Yes | 100 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 81.78 |
| donthackme | Yes | 74.99 |
| zeitfi-vault-v2 | Yes | 70 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| cigarettes | No | 49.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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