Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 3 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2026 to 30 Jul 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 3 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 24% on 4 Jul 2026. $9.39K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 30, 3:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 3 Jul 2026 – 30 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2026 | 44.5% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.57K |
| Hot-Skull | Yes | 174.61 |
| Elementary-Writer | Yes | 169.17 |
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026, with a potential second round to be scheduled if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, this market will resolve to the winner of the specified election. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by São Tomé and Príncipe government sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sao-tome-presidential-election-first-round-winner-20260702151121341
| Yes |
| 140 |
| Meaty-Building | Yes | 117.78 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| doudouc | Yes | 100 |
| m340i | Yes | 60 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 40.76 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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