Analytics
Yes is at 96.7%, up 54 points from 42.5% when the market opened on 16 Sep 2026.
Across the 37 daily closes on record from 16 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 42.5% on 16 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 97.8%; a month before, 70.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 59% on 23 Sep 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?”.
$3.15K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $393.81, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 52 trades, $1.47K bought Yes and $75.76 bought No.
The largest Yes position is dpnd with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 423.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 10:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 16 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 42.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 96.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dpnd | Yes | 1.1K |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 422.76 |
| Started-with-20-USD | No | 339 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chinook" Adult Passage Annual Count at Bonneville Dam from January 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, exceeds the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Each market in this event will resolve independently, and any number of these markets, including all or none, may resolve to "Yes". The qualifying data is the Adult Passage Annual Count for Bonneville Dam for the date range January 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Jack Chinook will not be considered for resolution. A value exactly equal to the listed value will resolve to "No". The value read for that date range is final, and counts for dates after October 31, 2026 are disregarded. The count is used as published, without expansion, interpolation, or adjustment, and annual and year-to-date summary totals are not used. The resolution date is November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, extending to November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the count through October 31, 2026 has not been published by that time. If DART has not published the count through October 31, 2026 by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data. If Columbia River DART becomes unavailable and does not re-appear by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets will resolve to "No". No substitute data provider will be used. Revisions published before the controlling deadline are incorporated; revisions published after the controlling deadline are disregarded. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Columbia River DART Adult Passage Annual Count for Chinook at Bonneville Dam, available here: https://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart/cs/php/rpt/adult_annual.php?outputFormat=html&proj=BON&startdate=1/1&enddate=10/31
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-chinook-will-pass-bonneville-dam-by-october-31-2026
| Numitus1994 |
| No |
| 203 |
| erFiodena | No | 103.72 |
| Rapid Tide E1CC | Yes | 63.12 |
| Ma-sk | Yes | 59 |
| oliveiraielson | No | 50 |
| 2B9S | No | 40 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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