Analytics
Yes is at 13%, about where the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 21% on 8 Oct 2026 and the lowest 13% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16.5%.
It is one of 11 markets under “Best Chinese AI Company end of December?”.
$50 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $592.81 since listing. The order book holds $1.06K, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 38 trades, $17.82 bought Yes and $367.99 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 255 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 532.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 13.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 13.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 531.84 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 254.69 |
| jozeslemsek | Yes | 186.16 |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-december-2026
| X10X10 | Yes | 31.72 |
| ithinkthisisgod | Yes | 24.99 |
| pppnn | Yes | 20 |
| cigarettes | No | 20 |
| Ohyeahohno | Yes | 15.79 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 15 |
| Fair-Tan | No | 14.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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