
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 13 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 13 Jun 2026 to 1 Aug 2026, the highest close was 14.5% on 16 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.8 points down, to 0.8% on 1 Jul 2026. $148.85K traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 9:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 13 Jun 2026 – 1 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jun 2026 | 11.5% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mustafalafel | Yes | 3.32K |
| TeenagePanda | Yes | 200 |
| Coral Pioneer 3FD8 | Yes | 168.87 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-sign-uptspt-x-iran-deal-20260612002238373
| Yes |
| 132.59 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 132 |
| Elias.Thornwell | Yes | 126.29 |
| Cluttered-Cornflakes-Disaster | Yes | 113.91 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Indigo Comet D7B6 | No | 87 |
| getfee-s1 | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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