Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 43% on 21 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 71 daily closes on record from 21 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 43% on 21 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 21 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 4.5% on 22 Jul 2026. $51.42K traded over the market's life.
37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 21 Jul 2026 – 30 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | 43.0% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 41.15K |
| Hot-Skull | Yes | 1.82K |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 1.49K |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-september-20260717140852824
| Yes |
| 928.23 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 669.82 |
| 79fsdfs | Yes | 621.66 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 603 |
| Prytes | Yes | 594.99 |
| MetrixNeo | Yes | 528.69 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 520.52 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
