Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 21% on 28 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 340 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 47% on 15 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 29 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 47% on 15 Feb 2025. $152K traded over the market's life.
89 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 3:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 340 points, 28 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2025 | 21.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modelI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year
| d8644ca0e7ebb4efce516f6b4635a406 | Yes | 1.17K |
| MyLige | Yes | 1.11K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 520 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 249 |
| veveles | Yes | 214.29 |
| acal | Yes | 200 |
| Chickenleg | Yes | 199.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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