What is the “Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 27 Dec 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

On December 9, 2024, police detained Luigi Mangione in Altoona, Pennsylvania, in connection with the incident involving UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mangione pleads guilty to any charges stemming from the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on his first pleas at the arraignment - subsequent pleas will not be considered. If the arraignment has not occurred by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". Only guilty…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

48 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Dec 28, 12:15 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-mangione-plead-guilty) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?

Market referencewill-mangione-plead-guiltyUpdated Dec 28, 2024 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Dec 27, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.1M

Resolved

Settled

Dec 27, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Dec 28, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Dec 28, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

93%

Yes / No shares

32.57K / 508.58

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

282

Loaded notional

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
ijugweiju	Yes	13.9K	36.0%	$13.9K
djerj	Yes	8K	0.1%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 27 Dec 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: On December 9, 2024, police detained Luigi Mangione in Altoona, Pennsylvania, in connection with the incident involving UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mangione pleads guilty to any charges stemming from the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on his first pleas at the arraignment - subsequent pleas will not be considered. If the arraignment has not occurred by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". Only guilty…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

ijugweiju

Yes

13.9K

36.0%

$13.9K

djerj

Yes

0.1%

Trader	Current holding value
Zeeb	$382.21
Gooseggs	$100
BurjSneakas	$20
Neon Harbor 8FA2	$5
ananashead	$1.37
ijugweiju	$0
djerj	$0
guguji	$0
lynel	$0
TrashHobbit	$0
Letstrythis	$0
oopsyseason	$0