Analytics
Yes is at 82%, about where the market opened on 4 Jun 2026.
Across the 140 daily closes on record from 4 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 34.5% on 15 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 61.5%; a month before, 72%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 71% on 20 Sep 2026.
December 31 is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?”, ahead of October 31 at 14.5%.
$725.1 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $13.71K since listing. The order book holds $1.58K, with a 27.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 310 trades, $3.48K bought Yes and $1.26K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xcaiox with 764 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 488. Ten wallets hold 81.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 6:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 140 points, 4 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jun 2026 | 82.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 82.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xcaiox | Yes | 764.28 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 487.72 |
| vesselmaster | No | 310.15 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-lula-announce-nomination-of-a-supreme-court-minister-byptptpt-20260602182854659
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
| Musk5 |
| Yes |
| 264.28 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 235.38 |
| willsom | Yes | 143.33 |
| UN-Sure | Yes | 134.24 |
| bancomaster | Yes | 103.05 |
| Solar Beacon D366 | No | 85.45 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | No | 50.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
