Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?

Resolved

Yes, settled Aug 30, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$68.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 30, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 30 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 37% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 30 Aug 2026, the highest close was 100% on 30 Aug 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 19 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 58 points up, to 100% on 30 Aug 2026. $68.91K traded over the market's life.

53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 30 Aug 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Jul 2026	37.0%
30 Aug 2026	100.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	9.29K
Humble-Monk	No	8.51K
flawfence	No	7K

10 of 53 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election for the Western Australia state legislative constituency of Secret Harbour is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Western Australian Electoral Commission (https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/).