Analytics
Yes is at 3.1%, down 26 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2026.
Across the 16 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29.5% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.1% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 20.5% on 11 Oct 2026.
$25 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.99K since listing. The order book holds $740.39, with a 4.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 55 trades, $128.8 bought Yes and $2.22K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 475 shares; the largest No position is Mr.Izomuaren with 417. Ten wallets hold 93.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 29.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 475.33 |
| Mr.Izomuaren | No | 416.67 |
| tetrase | No | 382.6 |
Ledger is investigating reports of loss of funds from users who purchased hardware wallets through third-party reseller CryptoBillis. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ledger officially announces a plan to compensate, reimburse, or otherwise make whole any affected users for funds lost in this incident by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any form of qualifying compensation will count toward a “Yes” resolution, including but not limited to direct reimbursement, a dedicated victim compensation fund, or a formal arrangement with a third party (e.g., an insurer or the reseller) to cover user losses. A general statement of regret, or an offer to merely assist with investigation or asset recovery without a concrete compensation commitment, will not qualify. Replacement devices, discounts, or other goodwill gestures that do not cover lost funds will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be an official statement from Ledger or Ledger.com, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ledger-announce-compensation-or-reimbursement-for-affected-users-by
| Perypery |
| Yes |
| 376.78 |
| Infamous-Daughter | No | 270 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 120 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 100 |
| 0xdc3E831cad | No | 100 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 80.8 |
| ZeroSigma | No | 56.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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