Analytics
Yes is at 64%, up 38 points from 26.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 181 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 19% on 11 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 51.5%; a month before, 37%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 31% on 29 May 2026.
Labour Party is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “New Zealand Election: 2nd Place”, ahead of National Party at 34%.
$253.06 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.53K since listing. The order book holds $26.73K, with a 8.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 318 trades, $1.12K bought Yes and $1.07K bought No.
The largest Yes position is 1walrus with 446 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 92.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 181 points, 1 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 26.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 64.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.4K |
| 1walrus | Yes | 445.75 |
| DarkFish | Yes | 396 |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-election-2nd-place-393
| Retarts |
| Yes |
| 212.46 |
| explorer221 | No | 177.07 |
| Bsau4 | Yes | 169.63 |
| blindstupid | Yes | 161.06 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 150.07 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 120.09 |
| Mrmk1 | Yes | 53.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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