Analytics
Yes is at 29.5%, up 3.5 points from 26% when the market opened on 30 Apr 2026.
Across the 176 daily closes on record from 30 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 70.5% on 24 Jun 2026 and the lowest 26% on 30 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 48.5%; a month before, 55.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 46% on 1 May 2026.
Labour Party ranks second of the 6 outcomes in “New Zealand legislative election winner?”. National Party leads at 68.5%; New Zealand First Party is at 0.1%.
$281.38 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $33.52K since listing. The order book holds $46.52K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 488 trades, $4.97K bought Yes and $6.11K bought No; the largest was a $1.74K buy of Yes at 59.1¢.
The largest Yes position is RememberAmalek with 3.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 11K. Ten wallets hold 77.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 5:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 176 points, 30 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2026 | 26.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 29.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.01K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 3.79K |
| probability | Yes | 1.29K |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner
| 74-75 | Yes | 1.2K |
| Hyperlong | No | 1.09K |
| dolboyob | Yes | 820.37 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 817.5 |
| SunlineTicker | Yes | 723 |
| Brokie | Yes | 600 |
| StarMaster | Yes | 510.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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