Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 4, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$201.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 4, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 4 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 57.5%. Yes opened at 86% on 18 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 18 Feb 2026 to 4 Mar 2026, the highest close was 86% on 18 Feb 2026 and the lowest 57.5% on 4 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 57.5% on 4 Mar 2026. $201.22K traded over the market's life.

51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 8:09 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 18 Feb 2026 – 4 Mar 2026, chart shows 50%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 Feb 2026	86.0%
4 Mar 2026	57.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ClaudeAI	No	23.96K
Wry-Brood	No	11.43K
FedMoneyPrinter	No	8.49K

10 of 51 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Only a nomination message that nominates Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve will qualify. A nomination solely to be a Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not qualify. A joint nomination both for membership on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and for Chair of the Federal Reserve will count. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.