Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 3, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$184.0K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 3, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 3 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 3 Feb 2026, the highest close was 51.5% on 31 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 3 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 19.2% on 2 Feb 2026. $184.01K traded over the market's life.

34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 8:47 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 3 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Jan 2026	51.5%
3 Feb 2026	1.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
LukeDelta	Yes	2.5K
oak	Yes	1.96K
alilili1	Yes	500
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	391

10 of 34 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Only a nomination message that nominates Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve will qualify. A nomination solely to be a Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not qualify. A joint nomination both for membership on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and for Chair of the Federal Reserve will count. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.