Analytics
Yes is at 56%, up 11 points from 45% when the market opened on 5 Aug 2026.
Across the 83 daily closes on record from 5 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 82% on 23 Aug 2026 and the lowest 45% on 5 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 56.5%; a month before, 49%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 66.5% on 6 Aug 2026.
It is one of 71 markets under “Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?”.
$40 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.81K since listing. The order book holds $22.38K, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 110 trades, $1.21K bought Yes and $1.13K bought No.
The largest Yes position is bernardbulletin with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is MrMarket with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 94.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 83 points, 5 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | 45.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 56.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bernardbulletin | Yes | 1.36K |
| MrMarket | No | 1.27K |
| moneymakingmachine | Yes | 740.67 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2028-20260803142755224
58 more markets, none above 56.0%.
| vinii |
| No |
| 304.88 |
| Crimson Scout DF5C | No | 300 |
| Dondigidin | Yes | 190 |
| JohnP92 | No | 186.55 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 153.14 |
| rjpoly | No | 100 |
| Violet Maven 063C | No | 80 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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